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Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s Weather

Yesterday’s Weather is a Scrum pattern that helps Teams quickly calculate how many Points they will likely complete in the upcoming Sprint. The name comes from the fact that the best predictor of today’s weather is yesterday’s weather. In most cases, the number of Points completed in the last Sprint is the most reliable predictor of how many Points will be completed in the next Sprint.

Here’s how it works. First, the Team determines their average Velocity for the past three Sprints, adjusted for team size. For example, if one person of a five-person Team is on vacation for the entire Sprint in which 50 points of work is completed, the Team’s raw Velocity (50) should be divided by 80% (4 instead of 5 Team members) for a normalized Velocity of 60 points. Normalized velocity is the number of points you would expect the team to complete if all team members are available full time.

During the next Sprint Planning, the team determines what the their percent capacity will be for the upcoming Sprint. If a fully staffed Team has five members who all work full time, but one team member will be absent  for a day in the coming week-long Sprint, the team’s capacity will be 96%. (Be careful to only correct for major team member absences and not try to over-correct for minor changes in capacity.)

Finally, multiply the team’s normalized velocity by its percent capacity for the coming Sprint to determine the targeted points for the next Sprint. This technique is quick, accurate, and Jeff says that he would not run a Scrum without including this Pattern. 

You may also want to factor in a Sprint buffer to account for Interruptions during the Sprint.

Here is Scrum Inc.’s Yesterday’s Weather Tool. It does all the math for you. 


Pattern:

Yesterday’s Weather

The Scrum Pattern Language of Programming :  The PLoP movement codifies well know Agile practices that have been successfully implemented many times.


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Definition of Done

Definition of Done

Each Scrum Team has its own Definition of Done. What matters is that each Team has a shared definition that every one understands. The Team’s Definition of Done is used to assess when work on a User Story has been completed.

Here’s one example: “Done means coded to standards, reviewed, implemented with unit Test-Driven Development (TDD), tested with 100 percent test automation, integrated and documented.”

The Definition of Done ensures everyone on the Team knows exactly what is expected of everything the Team delivers. It ensures transparency and quality fit for the purpose of the product and organization. As Jeff points out in video, getting stories done can double a Teams Velocity. The slides delineate how to get stories both Ready and Done.

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eXtreme Manufacturing

eXtreme Manufacturing

The term eXtreme Manufacturing (XM) was coined by Team WIKISPEED, a non-profit car manufacturer, to describe how it manufactures automobiles combining the Scrum framework, Object-Oriented architecture and eXtreme Programming (XP). Blending these three practices, WIKISPEED invented a new manufacturing process that can shorten time-to-market, reduce labor costs and spur innovation.

eXtreme Manufacturing borrows the basic Agile principles from Scrum. First and foremost, it leverages small, cross-functional Teams, which have a Product Owner and Scrum Master. XM is structured around Sprints to help develop functionality in vertical slices that build overtime. Like Scrum, XM makes development transparent through tools like a Scrum board and a product backlog. It also borrows the concept of tracking process improvements by using Velocity. And, most importantly, it relies on the Lean concept of continuous improvement by employing Sprint Retrospectives and the Happiness Metric. Scrum provides the basic structure for XM.

In this hour long online course, Scrum inventor Jeff Sutherland and WikiSpeed founder Joe Justice discuss eXtreme Manufacturing and how you can implement test-driven hardware development using the Scrum framework. 

 Scrum Inc.’s online courses are eligible for Scrum Alliance SEUs and PMI PDUs. See FAQ for details.

Download Extreme Manufacturing Slides

eXtreme Programming (XP) 

Scrum has adopted many best practices from XP and so does XM. Writing Product Backlog Items in User Story form helps develop products from an end-user perspective. This is particularly useful because XM designs and builds product on a per/contract basis. This helps create more customer-centric products so building a product based on the perspective of the person who will be using the product increases value.

XM also borrows pairing from XP: two people work together on every job. This allows a small team to swarm on a particular task, while cross-training employees and building quality control into the manufacturing process. Pairing also reduces dependency on different skill sets.

XM uses Test Driven Development, or TDD, to dramatically speed up time-to-market and lower development costs. Team WIKISPEED for example used real-time crash test data to build a computer program that simulates an actual crash test. They were able to save millions of dollars in crash tests by simulating them each Sprint. After a number of Sprints accumulating data, WIKISPEED pays for another physical test. The new information is then used to up-date the computer simulation. This lowers material costs since WIKISPEED doesn’t have to destroy a car each time they want to test it and it reduces production costs because crash tests are expensive.

Object Oriented Architecture

Modularity allows for innovative design while building on iterative development. For example, Team WIKISPEED uses modularity for all its components. That allows the team to re-design the suspension system, speedometer or car body at any point and not have to tweak the chassis or dashboard to make the improved components fit. Modularity prevents engineering challenges from rippling through the entire design process. It also allows the team to swarm on the most important improvement without affecting the rest of the car.

Contract First Design: As manufacturing matures, more and more customers are insisting on custom designs. XM embraces customization before the manufacturing process even starts. For example, WIKISPEED takes only custom orders of its commuter cars and is able to easily meet each customer’s need because of the car’s modularity.

XM leverages Design Patterns in two ways: 1) by re-using mature designs with a proven track record and 2) by reducing complexity. Basically, XM doesn’t try to reinvent the wheel. The idea is to take advantage of established technology and techniques to reduce costs of designing specialty parts.

WIKISPEED has incorporated design patterns in a number of ways but there are two clear examples: modularity and inheritance. Modularity we mentioned above. By keeping the same interfaces between all the modules, the team can increase or reduce complexity in any given module without affecting another.

Inheritance is the idea of benefiting from established techniques and technology. WIKISPEED, in its quest to achieve 100mpg didn’t invent a new highbred engine; they used a very established, efficient engine (40mpg) and then reduced weight and aerodynamic drag to cut fuel consumption in half (80mpg.) Just by using less weight, a sleeker design and piggybacking on an established engine they achieved 80% of their goal. To get the remaining 20% they re-tooled some of the engine’s software to get the car to pulse-and-glide. Pulse-and-glide is a hyper-efficient driving technique that increases fuel efficiency. WIKISPEED just automated what is essentially a manual process. No fancy new engine, just good old fashion engineering.

Patterns: 

Happiness Metric

 

Scrumming the Scrum

 

The Scrum Pattern Language of Programing : The PLoP movement codifies well know Agile practices that have been successfully implemented many times.

Scrum Inc. offers XM Build Parties for corporations and events. Participants build a car from the ground up in 60-minute Sprints. Guided by professional coaches, it’s an inspirational experience that leaves participants confident about conquering their work using Scrum. Because attendees apply the Scrum framework and eXteme Manufacturing to solve complex problems, build parties are a terrific way to win buy-in about agile practices.


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Definition of Ready

Definition of Ready

Having a Definition of Ready means that stories must be immediately actionable. The Team must be able to determine what needs to be done and the amount of work required to complete the User Story or PBI. The Team must understand the “done” criteria and what tests will be performed to demonstrate that the story is complete. “Ready” stories should be clear, concise, and most importantly, actionable.

The stories at the top of the ordered Product Backlog, the stories the Team will be pulling into the Sprint Backlog, have to be Ready. Some companies actually require a detailed checklist to determine whether a story is “Ready Ready” not just kind of ready, or sort of ready. The slides demonstrate this process nicely. Simply getting your stories ready will have immediate, dramatic impact on the Team’s productivity.

The Product Owner is responsible for putting the features and stories in the backlog. However, the Team must work with the Product Owner during Backlog Refinement to help them get the stories into actionable shape. Only then will the Team be able to estimate how much work any one story will take and how many Points they can take into a Sprint. In the video in the tab below, Jeff walks through Ready criteria – the importance of having a story in an actionable state, estimated at the right size, prioritized to Business Value.

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